Colombia Election 11 Days Out: FARC-EMC Runs 26 Drone and Explosive Attacks Against Voters and Candidates Since April; Runoff June 21 Appears Increasingly Likely

With Colombia's presidential election 11 days away (May 31, 2026), a ColombiaOne investigative report published May 19–20 documented the escalating role of armed groups — primarily the FARC Estado Mayor Central (EMC, under commander Iván Mordisco) — in the campaign, tallying 26 incidents involving explosives and armed drones targeting candidates, communities, and electoral infrastructure in coca-growing regions since late April. The most affected departments are Cauca, Nariño, Arauca, Catatumbo (Norte de Santander), and the Pacific coast, where EMC and ELN maintain armed territorial presence. The ELN's unilateral pre-election ceasefire (declared February 2026) is nominally holding in most areas but registering localized violations near the Venezuela border in Arauca. The latest AtlasIntel mid-May poll shows Iván Cepeda (left, Pacto Histórico) at approximately 37.4%, Abelardo De la Espriella at 29.4%, and Paloma Valencia at 20.9%. Valencia's surge from ~10% earlier in the cycle has narrowed Cepeda's lead substantially. No candidate is on track for a first-round majority, making a runoff on June 21 increasingly probable. A Cepeda-De la Espriella runoff would present Colombian voters with the starkest peace-process binary since the 2016 FARC accord plebiscite: Cepeda would resume ELN negotiations and potentially re-engage EMC dissidents; De la Espriella would cancel all criminal-group peace talks and pivot to military operations. Valencia would pursue a military-first approach while maintaining JEP processes. The JEP's macro-case 01 — examining 6,402+ military extrajudicial 'false positive' killings — is advancing toward judgment and will continue regardless of electoral outcome. Over 400 former FARC signatories to the 2016 accord have been assassinated since 2016, illustrating persistent implementation gaps. International electoral monitors (OSCE, OAS, EU) are deploying observation missions ahead of the vote.