IRI Pre-Election Assessment: Violence Risks in 185 Municipalities 12 Days Before Colombia's May 31 Vote; Peace Architecture Verdict Rests With Voters; ELN Unilateral Ceasefire Holds

With 12 days remaining until Colombia's presidential election on May 31, 2026, the International Republican Institute (IRI) published its pre-election assessment mission findings, documenting significant electoral violence risks in 185 of Colombia's 1,122 municipalities — approximately 16.5% of the country's administrative units. The IRI identifies the highest-risk departments as Cauca, Nariño, Arauca, Catatumbo (Norte de Santander), and the Pacific coast — areas where the FARC-EMC (Estado Mayor Central, under commander Iván Mordisco), ELN, and AGC/Clan del Golfo maintain armed presence and exert pressure on civilian voters through threats and restrictions on movement. The Congressional Research Service (CRS) simultaneously published updated analysis (In Focus IN12689) framing the election as the single most consequential electoral test for peace processes globally in 2026: the winning candidate will determine whether the 2016 FARC accord's JEP continues receiving state support (with macro-case 01 examining 6,402+ false-positive killings advancing toward judgment), whether ELN negotiations are resumed or abandoned, and whether a broader Total Peace approach or military-first security doctrine shapes the next four years. The three leading electoral scenarios remain: left-wing Senator Iván Cepeda (polling ~35%) who has pledged to resume ELN negotiations and possibly re-engage FARC-EMC; center-right Paloma Valencia (Democratic Center) who favors military-first security while maintaining JEP processes; and right-wing Miguel de la Espriella who has committed to ending all peace negotiations in favor of military operations. The ELN's unilateral pre-election ceasefire (declared February 2026) is holding in most areas as of May 19, though localized violations have been reported in Arauca along the Venezuela border. The UN Security Council on May 14, 2026 urged Colombia to accelerate rural reform under the 2016 FARC accord and extend protections for former combatants — over 400 FARC signatories have been assassinated since 2016 amid implementation failures. A presidential runoff is scheduled for June 21, 2026 if no candidate achieves 50% on May 31. For international peace watchers, the Colombia election is the clearest near-term test of whether ambitious comprehensive peace frameworks survive when the founding political coalition changes power.