Russia Resumes Full-Scale War After Ceasefire Expiry — Fires 200+ Drones at Ukraine; No Peace Framework Established

The U.S.-brokered 72-hour Ukraine–Russia ceasefire expired at midnight May 11–12, and Russia immediately resumed large-scale attacks. President Zelensky announced on May 12 that Russia had fired over 200 Shahed drones and cruise missiles at Ukrainian cities and energy infrastructure, with damage to apartment buildings and critical facilities. Russia's Defense Ministry separately reported it shot down 27 Ukrainian drones. The immediate resumption of large-scale attacks within hours of ceasefire expiration demonstrates the complete absence of any enforcement mechanism, de-escalation corridor, or diplomatic framework from the 3-day ceasefire. Ukraine and European allies had formally called for Russia to extend the ceasefire unconditionally for at least 30 days starting May 12 — Russia ignored the call, with the Kremlin stating there are 'no specifics' on ending the war. Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War noted the ceasefire produced zero institutional architecture: no joint monitoring commission, no agreed rules of engagement limitations, no next-step diplomatic process. The single tangible deliverable — a 1,000-per-side prisoner of war exchange — continues to proceed and represents the only concrete outcome. The peace gap remains unbridged: Russia demands recognition of all four annexed oblasts (Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson), including territory still held by Ukraine; Ukraine refuses territorial concessions without NATO-equivalent security guarantees. Putin has conditioned any summit with Zelensky on a 'full, long-term peace agreement' being finalized first — making the sequence circular. The ceasefire's failure and immediate return to full-scale conflict underscores Crisis Group's assessment that 'without a mediator acceptable to both sides, a credible monitoring mechanism, and a political framework for the status of occupied territories, ceasefires between Russia and Ukraine will be tactical pauses rather than genuine peace openings.'