NOAA Survey Finds Gray Whale Population Rebounded to ~17,750 — Complicates 'Catastrophic Mortality' Narrative

NOAA Fisheries' Southwest Fisheries Science Center published a new Eastern North Pacific gray whale abundance estimate on July 15, 2026 (NOAA Technical Memorandum NMFS-SWFSC-737, authored by Eguchi, Lang, and Weller), based on visual, infrared-camera, and drone surveys conducted during the 2025/2026 southbound migration past Granite Canyon, California. The survey put the population at approximately 17,750 whales (95% CI: 15,930–20,530) — a marked rebound from the 2024/2025 estimate of roughly 11,700–14,200 and back within the range observed during the 2019–2023 Unusual Mortality Event (13,300–16,000). The finding complicates the 'catastrophic mortality event' framing that followed reports of 145 gray whale strandings from Mexico to Alaska earlier in 2026, since it suggests the at-sea population is larger than the mortality-driven narrative implied. NOAA scientists cautioned the estimate should be read alongside continued concern: calf production has remained near record lows since 2019, and the report's authors said the results raise questions about migration timing or survey methodology that require further study rather than an unambiguous 'recovery' signal.