Trump Threatens 30% Reciprocal Tariff on Mexico Starting August 1

President Trump announced that reciprocal tariffs on Mexican goods would rise to 30% effective August 1, 2026, escalating pressure during the ongoing USMCA joint review process. The threat came roughly two weeks after the US declined to renew USMCA on its current 16-year terms at the July 1 joint review, and as bilateral negotiating rounds on automotive rules of origin, steel, and aluminum continued. As of mid-July, USMCA-qualifying goods (an estimated 89% of Mexico-US trade) continued to enter under the existing 0% preferential rate, with the 30% threat aimed at non-qualifying goods and intended as leverage ahead of the next negotiating round scheduled for the week of July 20.