Channel 12 Poll: Netanyahu Coalition Projected at 51 Seats — Eisenkot's Yashar Rises to 17

A Channel 12 poll published in Haaretz on May 29, 2026 projected Netanyahu's governing coalition at just 51 Knesset seats — 10 short of the 61 needed for a majority — as the Knesset dissolution bill advanced and October 27, 2026 emerged as the expected election date. Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar (Israel Resilience) party rose to 17 seats, making it the most significant new centrist-security political force since Benny Gantz's National Unity party. Parties opposed to Netanyahu cannot form a governing coalition without Arab-majority party support or Eisenkot's agreement, creating the prospect of a political deadlock. More than 60% of Israelis polled supported early elections, and a plurality said Netanyahu should resign given his active ICC arrest warrant. The expected merger between former PM Naftali Bennett's Hayamin Hehadash and opposition leader Yair Lapid's Yesh Atid would not alone guarantee a coalition majority. The poll reflected growing political fragmentation at a critical time: Netanyahu's government faces simultaneous pressure from ICC arrest warrants, the ongoing Gaza reconstruction standoff, and the collapse of the Haredi draft exemption bill that shattered the coalition's internal cohesion.