Iranian Economists Warn 40+ Million Facing Absolute Poverty — 'Poverty Explosion' Imminent

A comprehensive economic analysis published by Donya-e-Eqtesad and reported internationally on May 30, 2026 revealed that Iran's absolute poverty headcount was approaching 40 million people — nearly half the country's 87.9 million population. Leading economists and academics presented dire forecasts at a Tehran symposium, warning that the combined impact of the 2026 conflict, total collapse of oil revenues, and the continuation of international sanctions had pushed Iranian society to the brink of catastrophic destitution. With Iran's GDP projected to contract between 8.8% and 10% in 2026, an additional 3.5 to 4.5 million citizens were expected to fall below the absolute poverty line within months. The wage crisis added another dimension: workers at major contracted projects such as Makran Steel in Chabahar reported nine consecutive months of unpaid wages. Iran HRM documented that the average Iranian worker's wage had fallen well below the survival line — minimum wage in 2026 failed to cover even 30% of a basic household's monthly costs. The economists warned that Iran's Ministry of Intelligence had issued urgent internal alerts on the social stability implications, projecting that this combination of war damage, energy infrastructure collapse, hyperinflation, and unpaid wages represented the most acute social time bomb in Iran since the 1979 revolution. The report estimated the cumulative GDP lost to sanctions and war since 2012 had exceeded $1.2 trillion.