NPR Planet Money: Trump Immigration Crackdown Creates Broad Economic Chilling Effect — Undocumented Work Down 4–5%, Spillover to U.S.-Born Workers

NPR's Planet Money published an analysis on May 12, 2026 finding that the Trump administration's immigration enforcement surge is creating a measurable economic chilling effect beyond the direct costs of deportation. The research found that fear of ICE raids and deportation has reduced work participation among undocumented immigrants by approximately 4–5%, creating spillover economic harm to U.S.-born low-education workers who compete in similar labor markets — including construction, agriculture, landscaping, and food processing. The analysis documented that immigrant workers are withdrawing from formal employment, avoiding employers enrolled in E-Verify, and in some sectors reducing work hours or refusing new jobs entirely due to fear of detection. The economic effects cascade beyond the immigrant worker population: employers face labor shortages, consumers face price increases in labor-intensive sectors, and supply chains are disrupted by sudden workforce changes. The analysis compounds existing research — Goldman Sachs and the CBO have both estimated that mass deportation at the current pace could reduce U.S. GDP by 2–3%, while the Peterson Institute calculated that removing all undocumented workers would shrink the labor force by roughly 8 million. The NPR analysis was published as the Senate prepares for its week of May 18 floor vote on the $71.7 billion immigration enforcement reconciliation bill, which does not include any provisions to assess or offset economic impacts.