US-Iran MOU Expires Without a Deal — 30-Year Treasury Yield Hits Highest Since 2007, Stocks Slip

The 60-day negotiating window under the June 17 US-Iran Memorandum of Understanding expired Monday without a final peace agreement. Trump said the US would not seek an extension, telling Iran to 'put up the white flag of surrender' while adding he felt 'no hurry' and would rely on the naval blockade and upcoming Treasury sanctions to apply pressure; Iran's side blamed unresolved disputes over Strait of Hormuz shipping routes, continued Israeli strikes in Lebanon and Gaza, and an unfunded $300B reconstruction package. The renewed war-risk premium pushed Brent crude up about 2.7% to $90.87/bbl and WTI up 2.6% to $84.50/bbl. Combined with mounting concern over federal debt issuance (national debt nearing $40 trillion) and persistent above-target inflation, the 30-year Treasury yield rose to 5.31-5.32% — its highest level since June 2007 — while the 10-year added to 4.72-4.74%. US equities slipped on the combination of renewed geopolitical risk and higher long-end borrowing costs: the Dow fell 0.5%, the S&P 500 fell 0.5% (snapping a three-week winning streak), and the Nasdaq fell 0.3%.