China's July Activity Data Misses Across the Board — Industrial Output +4.5%, Retail Sales +0.6%, Investment Slump Deepens

China's National Bureau of Statistics reported industrial output grew 4.5% year-over-year in July, down from 5.3% in June and missing the 4.8% Reuters poll forecast, while retail sales rose just 0.6% (vs. a 1.5% forecast and June's 1.0% pace) as auto sales plunged 17.0%. Fixed-asset investment for the first seven months of 2026 contracted 6.7%, deeper than the expected 6.0% decline and worse than H1's -5.7%. Analysts attributed part of the weakness to three typhoons that made landfall in July, disrupting manufacturing hubs in eastern and southern China and forcing millions to evacuate, alongside fading government subsidy support for durable-goods purchases (daily average sales fell to 6.3 billion yuan from 9 billion in June). The data follows Q2 GDP's slowdown to a three-and-a-half-year low of 4.3% and adds pressure on Beijing to deliver stronger fiscal stimulus in the second half to hit its 2026 growth target.