May 2026 PCE: Headline Inflation Hits 4.1% YoY, Highest Since April 2023

The May 2026 PCE report showed headline inflation at 4.1% YoY (+0.4% MoM) — the highest reading since April 2023 — while core PCE came in at 3.4% YoY, slightly above the 3.3% forecast. Personal income and personal spending each rose 0.7% MoM, and the personal saving rate held at just 3%. The hot print, released just over a week after Warsh's hawkish dot plot, reinforced the case for the Fed's projected 2026 hike and complicated the disinflation narrative even as the Iran-deal oil-price relief was working its way through the data.