Goldman Sachs Confirms 12-Month US Recession Probability at 15%, Citing Iran Deal

Goldman Sachs formally cut its 12-month US recession probability to 15% (from roughly 20% pre-war), citing the signed Iran deal, improved labor-market resilience, lower gasoline prices following the Brent crash, and AI-driven equity wealth effects. Chief economist Jan Hatzius characterized 15% as the firm's 'long-term norm' baseline recession probability, effectively signaling that the acute war-driven risk premium embedded in prior estimates had been retired following the June 17 MOU signing.