JPMorgan Shifts Base Case to No Fed Cuts in 2026; Senate Banking Confirms April 29 Warsh Vote; BOJ Two-Day Meeting Opens April 27 — Hold Expected at 0.75%

Three critical policy-path developments defined the final pre-Super-Week weekend: **1. JPMorgan 'No Cuts' Shift:** J.P. Morgan's Global Research team shifted its 2026 base case from two 25bp Fed cuts to **zero cuts in 2026** — with a possible 25bp hike in Q3 2027 if oil-driven inflation persists. J.P. Morgan now forecasts PCE inflation at 3.7% (Q2 2026), 3.4% (Q3), 3.2% (Q4) — all far above the Fed's 2% mandate. A Reuters survey (103 economists) found ~54% expected rates unchanged through September 2026. The revision crystallizes the stagflation trap: cutting would validate 4.8% inflation expectations already embedded in Michigan sentiment (all-time low 47.6); holding risks accelerating the consumer confidence collapse and engineering the very recession the Fed is trying to avoid. FOMC April 28-29 (3 days away) is now widely described as a 'dead meeting' for rate decisions but an extremely live meeting for communication strategy — every word of the statement will be dissected for any signal about tolerance for higher inflation, the path under a potential Warsh chairmanship, and the Q2 GDP trajectory. **2. Warsh Senate Banking Committee Vote Confirmed for April 29:** The Senate Banking Committee's Republican leadership published its schedule on April 25: the executive session vote on Kevin Warsh's nomination to replace Jerome Powell as Federal Reserve Chair is set for **Wednesday, April 29 at 10:00 AM ET** (Dirksen Senate Office Building 538). Prediction markets moved to 86% probability of Warsh being confirmed before Powell's May 15 term expiry and 97% before June 1. Senator Elizabeth Warren issued a statement opposing the rushed vote process. The April 29 vote would occur simultaneously with the FOMC's second meeting day (decision due 2:00 PM ET), creating an extraordinary constitutional-monetary collision: Congress votes to install a new Fed Chair hours before the outgoing Chair's final scheduled press conference. **3. BOJ April 26-27 Meeting (Decision April 28):** The Bank of Japan's two-day policy meeting opened April 27 (Japan time) with a hold at 0.75% (rate since March 2026) now near-universally expected at 82.5% probability (Polymarket). UBS Securities — which had forecast an April hike — reversed its call earlier in the month. Governor Ueda's April 13 speech explicitly cited 'protracted Middle East tensions' as a reason to pause normalization. The BOJ will also release its quarterly Outlook Report on April 28, which will update growth and inflation projections in light of the Iran war demand-destruction effect on Japanese exports and the yen carry trade impact of oil-driven US inflation expectations. Japan's 10Y JGB yield stands at 2.11% (February 2026 close), having risen from the 2024 NIRP exit.