Super Week Countdown: FOMC Hold Decision Apr 29, Q1 GDP Advance Apr 30, March PCE Apr 30, ECB Apr 29-30 — Oil Eases to WTI $94.40/Brent $105.33 on Iran Peace Talks; S&P 500 at All-Time High ~7,147

Markets entered the most consequential macro week of 2026 on April 25. The five-day calendar beginning April 28 is unprecedented in its concentration of policy-critical data releases: • **BOJ April 27** — Expected hold; policy statement and quarterly Outlook Report closely watched for any JGB yield curve control guidance. • **FOMC April 28-29** — 94% market probability of a hold at 3.50–3.75%. This is almost certainly Jerome Powell's final FOMC meeting as Chair (term expires May 15). The policy statement due April 29 at 2:00 PM ET and Powell's 2:30 PM press conference will be among the most watched in Fed history. Key question: will the statement acknowledge stagflation explicitly (CPI 3.3%, Michigan all-time low 47.6), or maintain the 'patient, data-dependent' tone? Markets price approximately 50 bps of cuts by year-end 2026, but the path is deeply uncertain. • **Conference Board Consumer Confidence April 29** — The first read of consumer sentiment since Michigan's all-time record low (47.6). Market expects a materially weak number given the Hormuz oil shock. • **Q1 2026 GDP Advance Estimate April 30** — The Atlanta Fed GDPNow model (last updated April 21) stands at 1.24% SAAR, well below the Philadelphia Fed survey median (2.6%) and NY Fed (2.3%). If the advance estimate prints below 1.0%, recession fears will sharply intensify heading into summer. Consensus range: 1.0–2.0%. • **March 2026 PCE Inflation April 30** — The first PCE release fully capturing the Iran war energy shock (WTI averaged ~$93+/barrel in March). Expected to show re-acceleration: core PCE consensus ~3.2–3.4% YoY (vs. February 3.0%). A surprise above 3.5% would make summer 2026 rate cuts nearly impossible. • **ECB April 29-30** — 100% market probability of a hold at 2.00%. ECB watchers focused on whether Lagarde signals a June hike (50 bps by year-end now priced in) given the oil-driven European inflation re-acceleration. Oil markets: WTI crude eased to $94.40/barrel and Brent to $105.33 on April 25 (down from the April 24 highs of $97.37 WTI / $107.10 Brent) as Iran-Pakistan back-channel diplomacy continued. The US Navy's full Hormuz blockade remained in effect. Recession probabilities as of April 25: Goldman Sachs 30%, JPMorgan 35%, Moody's Analytics 49%. Goldman Sachs separately warned that K-shaped economic effects — strong for top earners, painful for lower-income households — would 'really bite' in 2026 as cumulative tariff and oil costs compound.