China Q1 2026 GDP Accelerates to 5.0%, Beating Forecasts Despite Export Slowdown

China's National Bureau of Statistics reported Q1 2026 GDP growth of 5.0% year-over-year — accelerating from 4.5% in Q4 2025 and beating analyst forecasts of 4.8%. Growth was driven by strong industrial output and a front-loaded export surge in January-February (21.8% year-over-year). However, March trade data revealed a sharp reversal: exports rose only 2.5% year-over-year in March (missing the 8.6% forecast), while imports surged 27.8% (the strongest since November 2021) on energy and commodity price increases from the Iran war. Factory-gate prices (PPI) rose 0.5% in March — the first rise in over three years — reversing China's deflationary trend as global commodity costs passed through. The Q1 beat offers near-term resilience but the March deterioration in exports and rising input costs signals headwinds ahead.