Penn Wharton: China Effective US Tariff Rate at 31.6%; USTR Comment Period Closes

Penn Wharton Budget Model released its April 15, 2026 update of effective US tariff rates, providing the key benchmark ahead of the FOMC April 29-30 stagflation decision. China faces an effective US tariff rate of 31.6% (as of February 2026) following the November 2025 agreement that reduced bilateral tariffs from 104%/84% peaks — that agreement remains in force through November 10, 2026. The April 15 date was also the USTR comment deadline for Section 301 investigations into Chinese excess manufacturing capacity in steel, aluminum, electric vehicles, and semiconductors; hearings are scheduled for April 28, 2026. The tariff data represents critical input for the Fed's inflation projections and for businesses navigating supply chain decisions.