US-Iran Ceasefire Shows Immediate Cracks — Lebanon Strikes Continue; Iran 10-Point Plan Conflicts With US Terms; Oil Holds Below $95

The day after the two-week US-Iran ceasefire was announced, multiple signs of fragility emerged rapidly. Israel continued bombing Lebanon — which was explicitly excluded from the ceasefire — with the UN documenting fresh strikes on April 8. Iran's 10-point ceasefire proposal, released publicly, conflicted with the US 15-point framework on two critical issues: Iran demanded continued control over Strait of Hormuz transit protocols and included 'acceptance of enrichment' for its nuclear program among its conditions. Multiple Iranian media outlets cast doubt on the permanence of the arrangement. Attacks continued in parts of the Gulf region even as the formal ceasefire was notionally in effect. Chatham House experts published early analysis characterizing the ceasefire as 'a pause in the conflict, rather than any kind of lasting resolution' and describing it as 'very fragile.' Despite the fragility, oil markets held their post-ceasefire gains: WTI traded in the $94–95 range — roughly 17% below the $113 April 4 peak. The Dow held the previous day's gains. Analysts at JPMorgan warned that a ceasefire breakdown — which would likely be accompanied by renewed Strait of Hormuz disruption — could push oil rapidly back above $100, reigniting the inflation shock the Fed was already struggling to contain with core PCE at 3.06%. The ceasefire's two-week window set an approximate April 21 deadline for either formalizing a durable agreement or risking return to conflict. The NBC News assessment of 'five takeaways' from the ceasefire deal stressed that no guarantees existed on Iran's nuclear program, Israeli operations, or the Strait's permanent status.