US-Iran Two-Week Ceasefire Triggers Historic Relief Rally: Dow +1,325 Points, Oil Crashes 16.4% to $94.41

A two-week US-Iran ceasefire announced barely an hour before President Trump's April 8 'obliterate' deadline triggered the most dramatic single-day market rally since April 2025. The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged 1,325 points (+2.85%) — its best session in a year — as oil markets posted their largest single-day decline since April 2020. WTI crude oil collapsed 16.4% to settle at $94.41/barrel and Brent crude tumbled 13.3% to $94.75, both now sharply below the $113 April 4 peak that constituted the biggest oil supply shock in modern history. The ceasefire terms require Iran to suspend military activity and fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz — through which roughly 12–15 million barrels per day had been effectively blocked — while the US agreed to halt bombing operations for two weeks. Asian markets led the global rally: South Korea's Kospi gained 6.87%, Japan's Nikkei rose 5.39%, Germany's DAX soared 5.06%, and France's CAC 40 jumped 4.49%, each posting their best day since March 2022. The S&P 500 rose approximately 2.5%, recovering roughly a third of its April 3–4 crash losses. Critically, analysts immediately flagged ceasefire fragility: Iran's 10-point proposal conflicted with the US 15-point framework on Strait of Hormuz control and nuclear enrichment. Israel continued bombing Lebanon — explicitly excluded from the ceasefire — and multiple Iranian media outlets cast doubt on the agreement's permanence. Chatham House described it as 'a pause in the conflict, rather than any kind of lasting resolution.' The fundamental economic headwind — China's 34% retaliatory tariff, still scheduled for April 10 — remained unchanged by the ceasefire.