Analysis: Trump Tariffs Have Failed by Their Own Metrics — Trade Deficit Widened, Not Narrowed

Foreign Policy analysis published March 19 concludes that by the Trump administration's own stated metrics — making foreigners pay, narrowing the US trade deficit, and punishing China — tariffs have clearly failed. The US-China trade deficit declined but was offset by rising deficits with India, Malaysia, Mexico, Taiwan, and Vietnam as trade was diverted through intermediaries. US consumers are now paying more for the same Chinese goods. JPMorgan estimates businesses absorbed ~80% of tariff costs in 2025 but are now passing costs to consumers, with the pass-through share potentially falling to 20% in 2026. The average US household faces a $1,500 tariff tax increase in 2026.