Wall Street Recession Odds Climb to 30–49% as Economy Shows Cracks

CNBC reported that recession probability estimates from major Wall Street institutions have reached elevated levels: Moody's Analytics 48.6%, Wilmington Trust 45%, EY Parthenon 40%, J.P. Morgan 35%, Goldman Sachs 30%, RSM 30%. In normal times, recession risk in any 12-month span is approximately 20%. A NerdWallet March 2026 survey found 65% of respondents expect a recession in the next 12 months, up 6 percentage points from February. Economists see three scenarios: baseline slow growth, mild global recession triggered by trade escalation or geopolitical shock, or modest reacceleration if AI investment holds. Key swing factors: AI investment, trade policy, Iran conflict, and US consumer resilience.