IMF: 'Coping and Thriving in a Fluid World' — Downside Risks Rising, Resilience Tested

IMF Managing Director addressed the global outlook in a March 9 speech titled 'Coping and Thriving in a Fluid World.' The IMF January 2026 WEO Update projects global growth at 3.3% for 2026, a 0.2pp upward revision from October 2025. However, key downside risks identified include reevaluation of AI technology expectations and escalation of geopolitical tensions — notably new Middle East conflict damaging oil/gas infrastructure with Strait of Hormuz shipping traffic falling 90%. US growth projected at 2.4%, China 4.4%, eurozone 1.3%, India 6.3%. Global inflation expected to moderate but US core PCE to return to 2% target only during 2027.