Fed Holds Rates at 3.50–3.75%; Dot Plot Signals Only One Cut in 2026

The FOMC voted to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75% at its March 17–18 meeting, the second consecutive pause. Updated dot plot projects only one 25 bps cut in 2026 (likely December) and one in 2027. Seven of 19 participants see rates unchanged all year, up from the December reading. Core PCE forecast revised up to 2.7% by year-end (from 2.5%). GDP growth forecast raised to 2.4% for 2026; unemployment seen at 4.4% year-end. One dissent: Gov. Stephen Miran voted to cut. Fed Chair Powell acknowledged tariff pass-through as an upside inflation risk and noted 'wait-and-see' mode pending Middle East clarity.