Forsa Poll: AfD Leads CDU/CSU by 5 Points — Would Win 196 Bundestag Seats

The May 11 Forsa poll showed the AfD at 27%, CDU/CSU at 22%, Greens at 15%, SPD at 12%, Die Linke at 11%, and FDP at 4% — below the 5% Bundestag threshold. In projected seat distribution, AfD would hold 196 seats versus CDU/CSU's 159, making the far-right party the largest force in parliament. The poll confirmed the trend from earlier May INSA polls and came as the constitutional court proceedings over the AfD's 'confirmed extremist' designation by the domestic intelligence agency (BfV) remained unresolved. All mainstream parties maintain their 'Brandmauer' (firewall) against coalition with the AfD.