ECB June 11 Rate Hike Fully Priced as Eurozone May Inflation Flash Estimate Due June 2

Financial markets on May 31 are fully pricing a 25 basis point rate hike by the European Central Bank at its June 11 monetary policy meeting, which would lift the deposit facility rate from 2.00% to 2.25%. The hawkish pivot follows the confirmed surge in eurozone HICP inflation to 3.0% in April 2026 — driven by energy at +10.8% YoY — which itself was influenced by Middle East tensions and an earlier-than-expected rebound in energy prices. The May 2026 Eurostat flash inflation estimate is scheduled for release on June 2, and a reading above 3.0% would cement expectations of two consecutive hikes (June and September), potentially lifting the rate to 2.50% by end-Q3. ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane had noted in May that the bank 'cannot look through' the energy-driven inflation rebound as it risks feeding into wage negotiations across the eurozone.