World Cup Economic Windfall At Risk: High Gas Prices, Iran Conflict, ICE Fears Threaten Projections

Fortune published a major economic risk assessment on April 4, 2026 warning that the World Cup's promised $17.2B US GDP windfall faces significant headwinds. Brent crude oil sat at $109/barrel — its highest in years following the US-Iran military conflict — with US gas prices topping $4/gallon for the first time since 2022. Jet fuel costs have nearly doubled since February. Fan anxiety over ICE immigration enforcement is actively deterring travel from Latin America, the Middle East, and Africa. FIFA President Infantino remained publicly optimistic, while academic economists — including Zimbalist — warned actual attendance and spending could significantly underperform projections. Short-term rental demand for June–July World Cup dates remained elevated, but economists cautioned that advanced bookings don't translate to guaranteed attendance.