US Wielding Sanctions Relief and Oil Policy to Steer Venezuela's Post-Maduro Transition

Bloomberg reported on May 5, 2026 that the Trump administration is using access to global finance, sanctions relief, and control over oil revenues as leverage to shape Venezuela's political direction following Maduro's January 3 capture. The analysis details how OFAC general licenses — GL 46, 46A, and 46B — have been progressively expanded since January 2026, allowing US and international companies to trade Venezuelan oil and engage with PDVSA, conditional on Venezuela's interim government under Acting President Delcy Rodríguez cooperating with Washington. Oil production has recovered to approximately 1.1 million barrels per day (bpd) — up from ~700K bpd in 2020 — with Chevron's joint ventures accounting for roughly 250,000 bpd. For ordinary Venezuelans, however, the impact of regime change remains limited, with many still facing high prices, weak incomes, and deteriorating public services. María Corina Machado's return to Venezuela has yet to materialize despite earlier pledges, and the opposition's democratic demands — competitive elections and an orderly transfer of power — have not been met under the Rodríguez administration.