Ofgem Confirms 4% Winter Price Cap Rise to £1,723 as Middle East-Driven Gas Costs Bite

Energy regulator Ofgem announced on 26 August 2026 that the quarterly energy price cap will rise 4% for the period 1 October to 31 December 2026, taking the typical dual-fuel direct-debit household bill from £1,663 to £1,723 a year — an increase of about £60 annually, or £5 a month. Ofgem attributed the rise to higher wholesale gas prices linked to ongoing Middle East conflict volatility, with gas unit rates up around 8.7% even as a temporary VAT cut on electricity held the electricity portion of the cap nearly flat. Around 22 million households on default tariffs are affected; roughly 11 million households on fixed-rate deals are unaffected. Analysts at Cornwall Insight forecast a further 9% rise in January 2027, which would take the typical annual bill to about £1,872. Energy debt among UK households reached a record £6 billion by June 2026, with over 3 million customers in arrears.