Unemployment Holds at 4.9% as Wage Growth Beats Forecasts, Vacancies Hit 5-Year Low

The Office for National Statistics reported on 18 August 2026 that UK unemployment held at 4.9% for the three months to June 2026, missing the market forecast of 4.8% and up from 4.8% the previous quarter. Regular wage growth excluding bonuses came in at +3.5% year-on-year, beating the 3.4% forecast, though private-sector pay growth slowed to 2.8% — its weakest pace since 2020 — while public-sector pay accelerated to 6.1%. Payrolled employment fell by 13,000 in July to 30.3 million, down 94,000 on the year, and job vacancies dropped to 707,000 in the three months to July, the lowest level since late 2014. Economists said the weakening labour market reduced the likelihood of the Bank of England raising interest rates from 3.75% at its 17 September meeting.