April CPI Hits 3.8% Y/Y — Three-Year High; New Fed Chair Warsh Faces 'Family Fight' at FOMC Over Rate Cuts; Markets Give <3% Odds of Any 2026 Cut

April 2026 Consumer Price Index data showed inflation rising to 3.8% year-over-year — a three-year high and up from 3.3% in March — driven primarily by the Iran war oil shock with Brent crude at approximately $107 per barrel. Financial media reported on May 18 that new Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh faces a 'family fight' within the FOMC over rate cuts: markets are pricing less than 3% odds of a rate cut at any remaining 2026 FOMC meetings. Warsh officially assumed the chairmanship on May 15 after confirmation 54-45 on May 13 in the most partisan Fed Chair confirmation in US history. Former Chair Jerome Powell remains on the Fed Board as an ordinary governor and analysts at Motley Fool warned of a potential 'Warsh-Powell Fed showdown' that could rattle markets. Warsh has prioritized tighter inflation discipline and aggressive balance sheet reduction of the $6.7 trillion Fed balance sheet. Trump told Fortune on May 18 the Iran war situation has complicated his longstanding push for rate cuts. The first FOMC meeting under Warsh's chairmanship is set for June 16-17.