Pew Research: Trump Approval Falls to 34% — Record Second-Term Low; GOP Confidence Erodes on Immigration, Military Force

A Pew Research Center survey published May 1, 2026 found President Trump's overall job approval at 34% — the lowest mark of his second term and down sharply from 48% immediately after the November 2024 election. Key findings on personal traits: the percentage of Americans saying Trump 'keeps his promises' fell to 38% (from 43% in August 2025 and 51% at the start of his second term); 'stands up for beliefs' dropped to 64% from 68%; 'mentally sharp' fell to 44% from 48%. On policy issues, confidence in Trump on immigration fell to 41% (from 53% post-election), and confidence in his use of military force fell to 38% (from 46%), driven by public unease with the Iran war. Republican base approval eroded from 95% in early 2025 to 78% among his own 2024 voters. A majority (56%) say government ethics and honesty have declined during Trump's term. The survey's rigorous methodology (n=2,000+, probability panel) makes it the most reliable indicator of the sustained approval collapse. The Iran war — with 64% of Americans in multiple polls saying it is 'not worth the cost' — was the central driver of the decline. With midterm election cycles beginning in late 2026, the trajectory poses long-term risk to Republican House and Senate majorities.