Easter Monday: Markets Reopen Pricing In Strong March NFP (+178K) and Iran Deadline Crisis Simultaneously

US equity markets reopened on Easter Monday, April 6, facing the unusual task of simultaneously pricing in two major competing signals: the strong March 2026 nonfarm payrolls report released on Good Friday (+178,000 jobs, unemployment 4.3%, beating estimates by approximately 120,000 jobs) and the expiry of Trump's Iran Strait of Hormuz deadline without agreement — followed by Trump's threat of 'Power Plant Day and Bridge Day' strikes. The strong NFP supported risk assets and reduced immediate recession fears, while the Iran crisis — with oil surging back toward $110/barrel on Hormuz closure concerns — weighed on sentiment. The S&P 500 had fallen approximately 7% year-to-date through Easter week. Health care stocks faced additional pressure from the April 2 pharmaceutical import tariff executive order (100% tariff on patented drugs). Recession probability models remained elevated: Moody's AI recession model at 49%; Goldman Sachs at 30% over 12 months. The FOMC March 2026 projections foresaw 4.4% unemployment by year-end; the March actual figure of 4.3% offered a modest upside surprise. Market analysts noted the unusual situation of a positive labor market surprise being overshadowed by geopolitical escalation risk from the Iran war.