March 2026 Jobs Report: +178,000 Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Falls to 4.3% — Massive Beat on Good Friday While Markets Closed

The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the March 2026 nonfarm payrolls report on Good Friday, April 3 — a federal holiday on which US equity markets were closed, forcing investors to wait until Easter Monday to react. The report was a massive beat: the US economy added 178,000 nonfarm payroll jobs in March, far exceeding the Dow Jones consensus forecast of approximately 59,000–60,000, which had been suppressed by expectations of DOGE-related federal layoff fallout. Unemployment fell slightly to 4.3% from 4.4% in February. Wage growth came in below expectations at +0.2% month-over-month and +3.5% year-over-year — the lowest annual pace since May 2021, offering some relief on inflation pressures. Job gains were led by health care (+76,000, partly reflecting returning strike workers in physicians' offices) and construction (+26,000). The report undercut the narrative that DOGE layoffs were causing broad private-sector damage, though economists cautioned March data likely predated the full impact of the April 2 pharmaceutical and metal tariff executive orders. Markets were set to price in the strong NFP alongside the Iran Strait of Hormuz deadline crisis when trading resumed Monday April 6. Recession probability models from Moody's remained elevated at 49%; Goldman Sachs held its 12-month recession probability at 30%.