Academia Sinica Sharply Raises Taiwan's 2026 GDP Growth Forecast to 10.16% — First Double-Digit Prediction

Taiwan's Academia Sinica on July 13, 2026 sharply raised its forecast for Taiwan's 2026 economic growth to 10.16% — up from just 3.71% projected in December 2025 — becoming the first major Taiwanese think tank to predict double-digit growth for the year. The institute cited easing uncertainty over US tariff policy and continued expansion of AI infrastructure investment as key drivers, alongside Taiwan's stronger-than-expected 14.55% year-on-year Q1 2026 GDP expansion, powered by surging global demand for AI applications and semiconductors. The forecast describes a 'dual-engine' growth structure, with domestic demand and net external demand each contributing roughly 5 percentage points, though growth is expected to moderate in the second half of 2026.