China Seeking Incremental Gains on Taiwan at Trump-Xi Summit — Analysts Warn of Arms Sale Pressure

Analysis published in The Diplomat (April 2026) assesses China's Taiwan calculus ahead of the May 14-15 Trump-Xi summit in Beijing: Beijing is not seeking a dramatic breakthrough but rather incremental gains to gradually weaken Taiwan-US security ties. Xi Jinping called for 'prudence on US arms sales to Taiwan' in his last phone call with Trump, signaling that restraining US arms deliveries will be a key Chinese priority at the summit. Analysts note the March postponement (originally late March/early April, delayed due to the Iran conflict) gave Beijing additional time to shape the agenda on technology controls, investment restrictions, tariffs, and Taiwan. Former AIT Director and Taiwan security sources assess Beijing is likely to argue that US support for Taiwan disrupts 'strategic stability' and that cross-strait peace can be achieved without US involvement. The $14 billion PAC-3/NASAMS arms package remains held pending the summit outcome.