Taiwan Stakes at Trump-Xi Summit Sharpen: Arms Sales Delay and Diplomatic Pressure Intensify with 42 Days to Beijing

With 42 days until the Trump-Xi Beijing summit (May 14-15, 2026), the Taiwan policy picture is sharpening on multiple fronts. Beijing is pressing Trump for commitments limiting arms sales and expressing opposition to Taiwan independence; Washington has withheld a second major arms package pending the summit; and the KMT Chairwoman's April 7-12 China visit is creating cross-party political pressure on Taiwan's defense budget debate at a critical juncture. Analysis published April 2 noted that what matters most at the Trump-Xi summit is the strategic framework: whether Trump treats Taiwan as a bargaining chip in broader US-China trade and economic negotiations or maintains the transactional-but-firm approach that characterized the December 2025 record arms sale. Former AIT leadership warned ahead of the summit that Xi may seek specific Trump concessions on Taiwan that could create 'strategic ambiguity about US intentions' precisely when Taiwan's legislature needs maximum diplomatic clarity to pass the NT$1.25T special defense budget. Trump confirmed the Beijing dates but has not publicly addressed Taiwan policy in relation to the summit. The bipartisan Senate SFRC delegation's March 30 Taipei visit was explicitly designed to 'demonstrate Congress' commitment to these alliances will endure well beyond any one administration,' providing a counterweight to any summit-driven softening.