PLA Maintains Minimal 1-Sortie Baseline on March 31 — Second Consecutive Low-Activity Day

Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense detected 1 sortie of PLA aircraft operating around Taiwan on March 31, accompanied by 6 PLAN vessels and 1 official ship — a further decline from March 30's 9 vessels. The single aircraft sortie entered Taiwan's southern ADIZ. The two-day pattern of 1-sortie/day marks a dramatic reversal from the March 28–29 peak (15 and 19 sorties respectively), confirming the late-March spike as a deliberate bounded escalation rather than the beginning of a sustained high-tempo campaign. The decline in PLAN vessels from 11 (peak, Mar 29) to 9 (Mar 30) to 6 (Mar 31) follows the same deescalation trajectory seen after the March 25 spike of 16 sorties. Analysts note that the post-spike return to baseline is structurally important: the PLA has consistently used short-duration high-sortie days to register displeasure at specific political events (defense budget endorsements, US Senate visits) without crossing into sustained campaign-level operations that would trigger stronger US/Japan responses. The overall late-March 2026 pattern — a lull period through mid-March, then a sharp spike followed by rapid de-escalation — reinforces the 'spike-and-retract' model documented in previous escalation cycles.