NOAA CPC Oct 8 Discussion: El Niño Still Strengthening, 83% Chance of Historic Event in Oct–Dec

NOAA's Climate Prediction Center issued its October ENSO Diagnostic Discussion on Oct 8, 2026: El Niño is still strengthening, with a strong-to-very-strong event likely through January–March 2027 (chance above 83%). Latest weekly indices: Niño-1+2 +3.9°C, Niño-3 +3.0°C, Niño-3.4 +2.1°C, with the equatorial subsurface temperature index well above average. Probability of a historic event (3-month RONI of +2.5°C or higher): 54% for Sep–Nov, 83% for Oct–Dec and 70% for Nov–Jan.