NOAA Releases Winter 2026-27 Outlook Favoring Warm North, Wet South

NOAA's Climate Prediction Center issued its December 2026-February 2027 temperature and precipitation outlook, built around a very strong El Niño. The temperature outlook favors above-normal readings across a broad sweep of the country — the Pacific Northwest, northern Rockies, Plains, Midwest, and Northeast — with the strongest warm signal in the northern tier, while the Southwest, southern Plains, and Southeast show more mixed signals. The precipitation outlook favors above-normal totals across the southern U.S. and parts of the West, with the strongest wet signal over Southern California, Arizona, New Mexico, Texas, the Gulf Coast, and Southeast; the Pacific Northwest, northern Rockies, northern Plains, and Great Lakes lean drier. The outlook is anchored to NOAA's August 13 assessment giving greater than 90% odds El Niño becomes 'very strong' this fall/winter.