Niño 3.4 Weekly Anomaly Hits +1.8°C as CPC Raises Super El Niño Odds to 95%

The Niño 3.4 region averaged +1.8°C above normal for the week of Aug. 10-16, 2026, up from a three-month (May-July) average of +1.0°C, signaling rapid intensification. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center now puts the odds at 95% that the event becomes a Very Strong 'Super' El Niño during October-December 2026, with the Niño 3.4 region forecast to average around +2.66°C in that window — which would surpass the +2.4°C anomaly recorded in the winter of 1982-83, the strongest El Niño since 1950.