SpaceX IPO: Analysts Flag S&P 500 Displacement Risk — EPAM Likely Out at $1.75T Valuation; Betting Markets at 82% by July 1

Financial analysts and Motley Fool published two major SpaceX IPO analyses on May 4, 2026 as the June window approaches. First, index fund analysts identified that SpaceX's addition to the S&P 500 is considered a near-certainty post-IPO given its expected valuation exceeding $1 trillion — making it one of the largest index additions in history. EPAM Systems (market cap approximately $6 billion) is identified as the most likely company displaced from the S&P 500 to accommodate SpaceX. Second, Kalshi prediction market data as of May 1 showed 82% probability of a SpaceX IPO announcement by July 1 and 85% by August 1, reflecting high market confidence that the June 18-30 window will proceed. The analyses note the S&P 500 addition would create enormous passive buying pressure from index funds managing trillions in assets, as every S&P 500 index fund would be required to purchase SpaceX shares proportional to its weighting — a technical tailwind for the IPO that may support pricing above fundamental valuation. SpaceX's confidential S-1 was filed April 1 (Project Apex); the public prospectus is expected around May 15-22, 2026, with Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs leading a 21-bank underwriting syndicate targeting a $75 billion capital raise — the largest IPO in US history.