ASEAN Reports 'Encouraged by Progress' on South China Sea Code of Conduct as 48th Summit Opens; No Finalization Expected — Monthly Talks Accelerating

As the 48th ASEAN Leaders' Summit opened its preparatory meetings in Cebu on May 6, 2026, ASEAN officials reported being 'encouraged by the progress' in South China Sea Code of Conduct (COC) negotiations with China — though no binding agreement is expected at the May 7-8 summit. GMA News reported that ASEAN's spokesman indicated monthly in-person and virtual meetings had increased the frequency of COC talks, with the Philippines (as 2026 ASEAN Chair) pushing for substantive advances. Key unresolved 'milestone issues' identified by officials and analysts include: the geographic scope of the COC; its legally binding status; enforcement mechanisms; definitions of self-restraint; and provisions regarding third-party military activities — the last being especially contentious given ongoing US-Philippine-Japan exercises. Radio Free Asia and the South China Morning Post independently assessed final COC signing in 2026 as 'simply not achievable' based on the pace of negotiations and fundamental structural disagreements. RSIS analyst Joseph Kristanto noted the COC is 'best seen as a mechanism for managing friction, rather than transforming the underlying dynamics.' China's analyst Wu Shicun assessed signing in 2026 as '100 per cent not likely.' Philippine DFA Secretary Lazaro nonetheless framed completing the COC as 'something we owe the world.' The Sandy Cay 1 confrontation (May 3), Chinese flag-planting counter-move (May 5), and continued Chinese research vessel intrusions into the Philippine EEZ provided a politically charged backdrop to the summit opening. Malaysia's PM Anwar Ibrahim (2026 ASEAN Chair) pledged to fast-track talks. The COC has been under formal negotiation since 2017 following the 2002 Declaration on Conduct; experts assess the underlying dynamic — China having no incentive to accept binding constraints — has not fundamentally changed.