ASEAN-China Unlikely to Finalize South China Sea Code of Conduct at May 5–9 Cebu Summit; Philippines DFA: 'We Owe It to the World' as Analysts Expect Only Incremental Progress

Analysts and diplomats indicated on April 24–25, 2026 that the upcoming 48th ASEAN Leaders' Summit (May 5–9, Cebu, Philippines) is unlikely to produce a finalized South China Sea Code of Conduct (COC), despite the Philippines' ambitious year-end deadline. Philippine Foreign Affairs Secretary Theresa Lazaro reaffirmed that concluding the COC in 2026 is 'something that we owe the world as well as the region,' with Manila pushing for a legally binding framework before its ASEAN chairmanship ends. However, Radio Free Asia (April 24) reported that Joseph Kristanto, a research analyst at Singapore's S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), assessed that 'the COC is best seen as a mechanism for managing friction, rather than transforming the underlying dynamics of the dispute' — and that final resolution at the May summit is 'improbable.' Key unresolved issues after more than 20 years of negotiations include: (1) geographic scope — whether the COC covers all South China Sea features China claims or only the Spratlys; (2) legal status — binding or non-binding; and (3) enforcement mechanisms. Stanford SeaLight director Ray Powell emphasized 'the problem is not the absence of written rules but a lack of any authority China is willing to accept above its own political will.' The 48th ASEAN Summit will be the first as both Philippines' ASEAN chairmanship and China's COC acceleration campaign face their clearest stress test. ASEAN and China signed a non-binding Declaration on Conduct in 2002 and began formal COC negotiations in 2013. Malaysia's PM Anwar Ibrahim, as 2026 ASEAN chair (Malaysia rotates to chair in 2025), is expected to push for accelerated progress. The Philippines as host of the May summit will attempt to leverage the gathering for maximum COC momentum, but expert consensus holds that a signed binding COC in 2026 remains 'simply not achievable.' China previously described COC negotiations as entering a 'critical phase' (Wang Yi, March 2025) but has not agreed to the legal bindingness or geographic scope required by ASEAN claimants.