Second Thomas Shoal Provisional Arrangement Holds at ~13 Missions; Diplomatic Lessons Debated

As of early April 2026, the provisional arrangement between China and the Philippines on rotation and resupply (RORE) missions to BRP Sierra Madre at Second Thomas Shoal had held through approximately 13 missions since it was established in mid-2024 — roughly one mission every six weeks — without the dangerous confrontations that characterized 2023-early 2024 operations. The Diplomat published analysis in April 2026 examining the 'real lesson' of the managed standoff, noting it demonstrated China's willingness to calibrate pressure rather than escalate to armed conflict, while the Philippines showed it could sustain a resupply operation through public transparency and alliance signaling. The analysis cautioned that the arrangement remained fragile: China could reimpose blockade conditions at will, and the BRP Sierra Madre's hull continued to deteriorate. The approximately 12 Philippine Marines garrisoned aboard the grounded WWII-era vessel continued to require regular resupply. China maintained that the vessel must ultimately be removed; the Philippines continued to deny any such agreement was ever made.