CSIS AMTI Documents Irreconcilable Philippine-China Interpretations of Second Thomas Shoal Resupply Arrangement

The Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative (CSIS AMTI) published an analysis on March 23 titled 'Divergence and Tacit Understanding in the China-Philippines Provisional Arrangement at Second Thomas Shoal,' documenting that from July 2024 through March 4, 2026, the Philippines carried out 13 RORE (Rotation and Resupply) missions under the provisional arrangement. However, the analysis found that China and the Philippines hold irreconcilably different public interpretations of the agreement: China says Manila accepted prior notification requirements and CCG 'on-site verification' of cargo; the Philippines flatly denies this. The arrangement remains fragile, with China resuming confrontational tactics whenever it judges the Philippines is transporting prohibited materials.