May 10 Dialogue Fails: Somali Future Council Boycotts Talks — Mohamud Holds Session Without Opposition; T-5 Days to Constitutional Deadline

The May 10 dialogue session — the framework the UN, EU, UK, Turkey, and Qatar called the last realistic window before Somalia's constitutional breakdown — effectively collapsed as a meaningful political event when the Somali Future Council (comprising Puntland, Jubbaland, the Salvation Forum, and allied opposition figures) did not attend. The Council had on May 5 set preconditions including halting President Mohamud's unilateral electoral timeline and establishing independent neutral mediation; those conditions went unmet as the FGS did not rescind its disputed March 2026 constitutional amendments (passed without the required parliamentary quorum) or cancel the Southwest State elections also scheduled for May 10. President Mohamud held the session with participants already aligned with the FGS rather than genuine opposition representatives. Prime Minister Hamza Abdi Barre cited a 'security threat' in urging opposition attendance, framing the simultaneous mass protest as an obstacle to dialogue. Former President Farmaajo publicly urged an inclusive electoral deal before the May 15 expiry. Somalia's Geeska magazine noted the clock was ticking toward a constitutional 'point of no return.' The failure of May 10 talks left Somalia with no remaining mediated pathway before the deadline, after which the opposition declared they would take 'responsible measures to save the unity and existence of the nation's statehood.' ICG analysts had warned that two parallel political authorities claiming legitimacy simultaneously could trigger a new phase of political violence and Al-Shabaab exploitation of the resulting governance vacuum — a scenario now appearing likely as the May 15 date approached with no agreement.