Somalia Opposition Threatens Parallel Presidential Election Within One Month; Somali Future Council Calls 'Salvation Summit' as May 15 Deadline Looms

With 21 days until President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud's presidential term expires on May 15, 2026, Somalia's opposition coalition escalated its pressure campaign on April 24, formally warning it will organize a parallel presidential election 'within one month' if Mohamud refuses inclusive talks. The Somali Future Council — an umbrella opposition body comprising former presidents, prime ministers, and civil society leaders — issued a 'salvation summit' call, urging all political stakeholders to convene an emergency national dialogue on a constitutional transition before the May 15 expiry. The opposition's ultimatum builds on weeks of escalating confrontation: Parliament's mandate expired April 14 without elections; senior FGS officials mass-defected to the opposition on April 21; and Puntland declared a 'constitutional vacuum' on April 17. The Future Council, backed by Jubbaland President Ahmed Madobe and Puntland, warned that if Mohamud continues to govern beyond May 15 without a political agreement, they would constitute an alternative federal executive — potentially triggering Somalia's worst governance crisis since 2012. UN Special Representative Catriona Laing and the African Union have urged dialogue, while the EU — which approved €75 million for AUSSOM on April 23 — has conditioned continued support on political stability. Al-Shabaab's April 19 seizure of Adan Yabal in Hiiraan, deliberately timed to exploit the governance vacuum, is being cited by opposition leaders as evidence that political paralysis directly enables security deterioration. IGAD is mediating but has made no visible progress.