PoderData poll shows Flávio Bolsonaro edging ahead of Lula for the first time since May

A PoderData/Aya survey of 3,000 voters across all 27 states (fieldwork 30 August–2 September 2026, published 3 September) put Flávio Bolsonaro ahead of President Lula 45%–44% in a simulated runoff — within the poll's ±1.8-point margin of error, but the first time PoderData has shown Bolsonaro numerically ahead since May, after Lula had led by one point a week earlier. State-level numbers show a starkly divided electorate: Bolsonaro leads in São Paulo (46.8%–43.3%), Mato Grosso (52%–37%) and Espírito Santo (48%–42%), while Lula dominates the northeast, including Bahia (58.1%–29%) and Pernambuco (59%–35%). The result lands a day after a separate Quaest/Globo poll showed the race at a statistical tie (42%–41%), adding to a run of tightening surveys ahead of Brazil's 4 October first round. Brazil remains outside the Shield of the Americas coalition; Bolsonaro's campaign is the most visible domestic constituency for the coalition's hardline, terrorist-designation framing of Brazilian gangs.