INEGI Q1 2026 GDP: Mexico Economy Contracts -0.8% Quarterly; All Three Sectors Decline; Annual Growth Slows to +0.2%

On April 30, 2026, Mexico's national statistics institute INEGI released its preliminary GDP estimate for the first quarter of 2026, confirming a quarterly contraction of -0.8% (seasonally adjusted) and annual growth of only +0.2% — a sharp slowdown from the already-weak 2025 full-year growth of 0.4%. All three economic sectors declined: primary activities contracted -1.4%, secondary activities (industry and manufacturing) fell -1.1%, and tertiary activities (services) fell -0.6%. The result was in line with the most pessimistic analyst forecasts, which had warned of potential quarterly contraction driven by heightened uncertainty from U.S. tariff policy and the 'Liberation Day' tariff announcement in early April. Independent analysis estimated $17.4 billion in planned investment was lost in Mexico in 2026 due to trade uncertainty, with an additional $30.2 billion at risk. The Q1 contraction puts pressure on the government's full-year projections: BBVA had forecast 1.8% annual growth and the IMF 1.6% — meeting those targets will require a significant second-half rebound. The news arrives as Banxico Governor Victoria Rodríguez Ceja, who on April 28 signaled the central bank was considering one final 25bp rate cut in May to conclude the easing cycle, faces a challenging environment — inflation at 4.53% remains above the 3% target while the economy is contracting. Sheinbaum's administration has maintained its official full-year projection of 1.8–2.8%, but the Q1 data will intensify opposition criticism of economic management and add urgency to USMCA negotiations scheduled to formally begin the week of May 25.