Bamako Siege Day 30 — Eid al-Adha Begins; March 2026 JNIM Fuel Truce Expires; One-Month Mark of Declared Siege Crossed

May 28, 2026 marks exactly 30 days since JNIM declared a 'total siege' of Bamako on April 28, 2026. Eid al-Adha (the 'Feast of the Sacrifice') begins on approximately May 28–29, 2026, marking the formal expiry of the March 2026 fuel-corridor truce — under which Mali quietly released over 100 jihadist detainees in exchange for JNIM opening fuel supplies to the capital. JNIM now faces no formal truce obligation and retains full structural road-junction control capability to reinstate total supply interdiction at will. EID LIVESTOCK CRISIS (widely reported May 27–28): Associated Press reporting published May 28 by The Manila Times, The Hill, US News, and Washington Post documented how the JNIM blockade has devastated Bamako's Eid al-Adha preparations. A livestock trader who normally brings 200 sheep to Bamako for Tabaski brought only 50 this year — the army-escorted convoy system does not have enough truck capacity. Small sheep that cost ~$177 in a normal year now cost ~$266. Some Bamako neighborhoods are pooling resources to buy cattle instead of the traditional sheep because supply is insufficient for individual household purchases. Extended electricity blackouts continue. Fuel, food, and basic goods remain in shortage. Amnesty International has formally demanded JNIM observe International Humanitarian Law — stating the blockade deprives civilians of food and medicine in violation of civilian protection obligations under IHL. CURRENT STATUS (Day 30, May 28): US Embassy Bamako Enhanced Security Alert active through May 31. 3 of 6 main supply roads disrupted (Amnesty International, May 15). WFP food operations suspended ($620M gap, 2M affected). IRC emergency response active. FAO projects 52.8M at acute food insecurity IPC Phase 3+ for June–August lean season — the highest-ever Sahel lean-season projection. Bamako food prices remain +43–65% above pre-siege baselines. Manantali hydroelectric grid degraded. Kidal aerial campaign continues; Ménaka urban standoff persists at Day 30. POST-TRUCE INFLECTION: The post-Eid period (May 28 onward) is the highest-risk window since the siege began. JNIM's demonstrated structural control over all six major supply arteries gives it the capacity to impose a fully effective blockade at any time. The junta's official March 31 denial of any prisoner release means there is no acknowledged diplomatic framework to negotiate a new truce. Analysis published by African Arguments (May 2026) noted that while FAMa was able to escort a food convoy to Diafarabé to break a local siege, there is no comparable force capacity to simultaneously defend all six Bamako supply corridors.