Ceasefire Holds Uneasily as Thailand and Cambodia Shift to Fence-Building Amid Lingering Border Violations

Estimated Total Killed 140+

Peak Displacement (Dec 2025) 500,000+ ▼

Still Displaced (Jan 2026) 409,000 ▼

Days Since Dec 27 Ceasefire 236

Planned/Built Fence Length 1.3km built / 17km+ planned ▲

2024 Bilateral Trade Value 366.7B baht (~$10B) ▼

US Tariff Rate 19% ▼

LATESTAug 18, 2026 · 6 events

Military Operations

Humanitarian Impact

Casualty figures by category with source tiers and contested status
Category	Killed	Injured	Source	Tier	Status	Note
Thai Military (Jul 2025)	6	29	Royal Thai Army	Official	Partial	Thai military casualties during the July 24-28, 2025 five-day border war.
Thai Civilians (Jul 2025)	13	30	Royal Thai Government	Official	Partial	Civilian casualties in Thai border provinces from Cambodian rocket and artillery fire.
Cambodian Military (Jul 2025)	5	20+	Cambodian Ministry of National Defence	Official	Heavily Contested	Cambodia's reported military losses during the July fighting; Thai sources cite different figures.
Cambodian Civilians (Jul 2025)	7	50+	Cambodian government	Official	Heavily Contested	Cambodian civilian casualties from Thai airstrikes and cross-border fire.
Combined Total (Jul 2025 War)	43+	130+	Independent media tallies (Reuters/AP/Al Jazeera)	Major	Evolving	Aggregated independent estimate; some outlets cited higher figures depending on cutoff date and inclusion of later landmine deaths.
Thai Military (Dec 2025)	26	unknown	Royal Thai Army	Official	Partial	Thai military deaths during the 20-day December 2025 ceasefire collapse.
Thai Civilians (Dec 2025)	1	unknown	Royal Thai Government	Official	Verified	Thai civilian death toll reported for the December fighting.
Cambodian Civilians (Dec 2025)	30	90	Cambodian government	Official	Heavily Contested	Cambodia did not release official military casualty figures for December; only the civilian toll was disclosed.
Combined Total (Dec 2025 Collapse)	101+	unknown	Independent media tallies (Reuters/AP)	Major	Evolving	Widely cited independent total for the 20-day December fighting; considered the deadliest phase of the conflict.
Landmine Injuries (Aug-Nov 2025)	0	9+	Royal Thai Army	Official	Heavily Contested	Cumulative Thai troop injuries from landmine blasts in August and November 2025, blamed by Thailand on freshly laid Cambodian mines; Cambodia denies planting new ordnance.
Conflict-Wide Total (May 2025-present)	140+	260+	Aggregated independent media/WHO estimates	Major	Evolving	Approximate combined toll across the May 2025 flashpoint, July 2025 war, and December 2025 collapse; figures continue to be revised as both governments release updated data.
2008-2011 Preah Vihear Clashes (Historical)	20-34	unknown	Al Jazeera / historical reporting	Major	Contested	Death toll from the earlier round of Preah Vihear-area clashes prior to the 2025-2026 crisis, included for historical context.

Economic & Market Impact

Bilateral Trade Volume (2024) ▼ Land trade down from $1.9B to $0.9B, Q2 to Q4 2025

366.7B baht

Source: ITD Thailand / Thai Customs

Cambodia GDP Growth Forecast (2025) ▼ -1.3pp vs. pre-conflict forecast (6.1%)

4.8%

Source: World Bank / ADB

Cambodia Tourist Arrivals from Thailand ▼ Sharp decline since the May 2025 flashpoint

-60% YoY (Jun 2025)

Source: Cambodia Ministry of Tourism / ADB

Trat Province Tourism Losses (Dec 2025) ▼ 1B+ baht ($32M) total economic losses in 9 days

300M baht ($9.6M)

Source: Khaosod English

US Tariff Rate (Thailand & Cambodia) ▼ Down from 36% threatened rate

19%

Source: US Trade Representative / Bloomberg

Cambodian Migrant Remittances at Risk ▼ 1.2M Cambodian workers in Thailand exposed to disruption

~$2B/yr (5.6% of GDP)

Source: World Bank / Cambodia Investment Review

Thai Border Fence & Shelter Spending ▲ New emergency allocation for 1,669 shelters

433.5M baht (Aug 2026)

Source: Khaosod English

Cambodia FX Reserves (Import Cover) ▲ Stable buffer despite conflict-related shocks

7.5 months of imports

Source: World Bank Cambodia Economic Update

Contested Claims Matrix

15 claims · click to expand

Who fired first at Chong Bok on May 28, 2025?

Source A: Thailand

Thai forces say a liaison team was sent to negotiate after Cambodian troops deployed forces in violation of existing agreements, and that Cambodian soldiers opened fire first, misinterpreting the approach.

Source B: Cambodia

Cambodia has disputed Thai characterizations of the incident, maintaining its troops were defending established positions against Thai encroachment in a contested zone.

⚖ RESOLUTION: Independent verification of the initial exchange is limited; both governments' accounts rely on their own military reporting. One Cambodian soldier was confirmed killed.

Were the July 2025 landmines newly planted or legacy ordnance?

Source A: Thailand

The Royal Thai Army says Cambodia planted new landmines -- of a type inconsistent with Thailand's own ordnance -- along patrol routes, in violation of the Ottawa Convention and bilateral agreements.

Source B: Cambodia

Phnom Penh denies laying new mines, saying Thai soldiers deviated from agreed patrol paths into areas still contaminated by ordnance left from decades of prior conflict.

⚖ RESOLUTION: No independent mine-clearance investigation has been published; the incidents remain a key unresolved trigger for the July 2025 fighting.

What was the true death toll of the July 2025 fighting?

Source A: Thailand

Thai officials reported 6 soldiers and 13 civilians killed on the Thai side, with 29 soldiers and 30 civilians wounded.

Source B: Cambodia

Cambodia reported 5 soldiers and 7 civilians killed on its side, with over 50 civilians and 20 soldiers injured.

⚖ RESOLUTION: Casualty figures remained contested throughout; combined independent estimates converged around 43+ killed and 300,000+ displaced by the July 28 ceasefire.

How many died in the December 2025 fighting?

Source A: Thailand

Thailand reported 26 soldiers and 1 civilian killed on its side during the 20 days of December fighting.

Source B: Cambodia

Cambodia did not release official military casualty figures but reported at least 30 civilians killed and roughly 90 injured.

⚖ RESOLUTION: Independent estimates put the combined December toll at 101+ killed across both countries -- the deadliest phase of the conflict.

Who has sovereignty over the land surrounding Preah Vihear temple?

Source A: Thailand

Thailand accepts the 1962 ICJ ruling awarding the temple itself to Cambodia but disputes Cambodian claims over the surrounding 4.6 sq km, arguing the ruling never delineated the broader land border.

Source B: Cambodia

Cambodia argues the 1962 ruling implicitly recognizes Cambodian sovereignty over the temple's immediate vicinity, and has pushed for full demarcation based on the 1907 French colonial map.

⚖ RESOLUTION: Unresolved. The temple's ownership is settled by the ICJ, but the surrounding land border remains undemarcated and is a recurring flashpoint.

Does Ta Muen Thom temple lie in Thailand or Cambodia?

Source A: Thailand

Thailand maintains Ta Muen Thom sits on Thai soil and has administered public access to the site for decades.

Source B: Cambodia

Cambodia claims the temple complex as part of its cultural and territorial heritage, citing the same colonial-era boundary arguments used for Preah Vihear.

⚖ RESOLUTION: Unresolved; the site remains under heavy Thai military presence and was a primary flashpoint of the July 2025 fighting.

Can Thailand build a border fence without Cambodian agreement?

Source A: Thailand

Thailand says it is building fencing entirely within its own recognized territory as a sovereign right and a security necessity after the 2025 clashes.

Source B: Cambodia

Cambodia says it does not object to fencing within undisputed Thai territory, but any construction near contested sectors must be approved through the Joint Boundary Committee, and Bangkok's unilateral maps are not accepted.

⚖ RESOLUTION: Unresolved diplomatically; Thailand has proceeded with pilot construction in Chanthaburi while Cambodia continues to demand JBC approval for alignment in disputed zones.

Was Thailand's withdrawal from MOU 44 legally sound?

Source A: Thailand

The Thai Cabinet says withdrawal from the 2001 maritime MOU was a legitimate sovereign act, arguing the framework had become an obstacle to resolving the maritime and land disputes on Thailand's terms.

Source B: Cambodia

Cambodia calls the unilateral withdrawal contrary to the 'spirit and political will' of the original 2001 agreement and has moved to compulsory UNCLOS conciliation proceedings in response.

⚖ RESOLUTION: Unresolved; UNCLOS conciliation proceedings initiated by Cambodia were ongoing as of mid-2026.

Was PM Paetongtarn's leaked call with Hun Sen a negotiating tactic or a breach of trust?

Source A: Paetongtarn Shinawatra / Pheu Thai

Paetongtarn said her deferential remarks toward Hun Sen and criticism of a Thai army commander were a negotiating tactic aimed at de-escalating the border standoff, not a genuine breach of national interest.

Source B: Thai Senate petitioners / military-aligned critics

36 senators and critics called the call an ethics violation and a sign of undue deference to a foreign leader at the expense of Thai sovereignty and military standing.

⚖ RESOLUTION: The Constitutional Court suspended Paetongtarn from duty on July 1, 2025 pending the ethics case, and Bhumjaithai's coalition exit ultimately ended her government.

Did Cambodia violate the December 27 ceasefire with drone incursions?

Source A: Thailand

The Thai military says it recorded hundreds of Cambodian drone incursions into its territory within days of the new ceasefire, calling it a clear violation.

Source B: Cambodia

Cambodia disputes Thailand's characterization of the incidents, without confirming the scale or intent alleged by Bangkok.

⚖ RESOLUTION: Unresolved; both sides continued trading violation accusations into January 2026 despite the ceasefire formally holding.

Are Thai troops occupying territory beyond the agreed ceasefire line?

Source A: Cambodia / Hun Manet

Hun Manet says Thai forces have pushed into long-held Cambodian territory beyond the line of dispute, despite the December ceasefire.

Source B: Thailand

Thailand says its forces have adhered strictly to the agreed Troop Deployment Line set at the December 27 GBC meeting and rejects claims of overreach.

⚖ RESOLUTION: Unresolved as of February 2026; no independent verification of troop positions relative to the agreed line has been published.

How many people remain displaced by the conflict?

Source A: World Vision / humanitarian agencies

Aid groups estimated roughly 409,000 people still displaced as of January 1, 2026, concentrated in Siem Reap and Banteay Meanchey.

Source B: Government figures

Thai and Cambodian government figures on returnee rates have varied and are updated less frequently than aid-agency tallies, creating gaps in the public count.

⚖ RESOLUTION: Displacement figures are treated as evolving; both government and humanitarian-agency numbers are cited with attribution rather than reconciled into a single count.

Is China's mediation role in the conflict impartial?

Source A: China

Beijing frames its mediation offers, including trilateral talks and Xi Jinping's direct outreach, as a good-faith contribution to regional stability under its Global Security Initiative.

Source B: Regional analysts (Tier 3)

Analysts at outlets including East Asia Forum argue China's mediation is partly aimed at preempting US, Japanese and Indian influence in Southeast Asia and expanding Beijing's own security role in the region.

⚖ RESOLUTION: Unresolved and inherently a matter of interpretation; China's mediation has run in parallel with continued US and ASEAN involvement rather than replacing it.

Did the border conflict decisively shape Thailand's February 2026 election result?

Source A: Bhumjaithai / nationalist commentators

Bhumjaithai's landslide is attributed to PM Anutin's visible, hardline handling of the border crisis, which resonated with a wave of nationalist sentiment among voters.

Source B: Some political analysts

Other analysts caution the result also reflects Pheu Thai's collapse after the Paetongtarn scandal and broader dissatisfaction with the prior government, not nationalism alone.

⚖ RESOLUTION: Widely regarded as a major factor per election-day analysis, though the relative weight of border nationalism versus anti-incumbent sentiment is debated among analysts.

How severe is the conflict's economic impact on Cambodia versus Thailand?

Source A: World Bank / ADB assessments

Multilateral lenders say Cambodia's growth slowdown to roughly 4.8-4.9% in 2025 (from over 6% forecast) reflects real but 'milder than expected' damage, cushioned by strong reserves and low public debt.

Source B: Cambodian officials / local economists

Cambodian officials and border-province businesses describe deeper, more immediate pain -- tourism arrivals from Thailand down over 60% in some months and nearly a million migrant workers affected -- than aggregate GDP figures suggest.

⚖ RESOLUTION: Both views are broadly consistent: macro indicators show a moderate slowdown while sector- and province-level data show sharper localized shocks.

Political & Diplomatic

Paetongtarn Shinawatra

Prime Minister of Thailand (suspended Jul 2025)

My intention was to help stabilise the situation and I never expected the conversation to be leaked.

Anutin Charnvirakul

Prime Minister of Thailand (since Sep 2025)

I'd like to return power to the people.

Natthaphon Narkphanit

Defence Minister / Director, Ad Hoc Centre for the Border Situation

We will keep our forces deployed along the border for at least one year to safeguard national sovereignty.

2nd Army Region Commander

Royal Thai Army, border sector command

No retreat from our 11 positions along the border.

Hun Manet

Prime Minister of Cambodia

Our position is to always stick to peaceful resolutions. We don't believe that using war to stop a war is sustainable or practical.

Hun Sen

President of the Cambodian Senate, former Prime Minister

If the Thai side continues to avoid this approach, it suggests that there is something hidden behind it.

Tea Seiha

Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of National Defence, Cambodia

Today's ceasefire also paves the way for the displaced people who are living in the border areas to be able to return to their homes, work in the fields, and even allow their children to return to schools.

Cambodia Ministry of Foreign Affairs

Government spokesperson office, Cambodia

Cambodia protests against the Thai military and continued violations of Cambodia's territorial integrity despite the ceasefire agreement.

Anwar Ibrahim

Prime Minister of Malaysia, ASEAN Chair 2025

asean

This is a vital first step towards de-escalation and the restoration of peace and security.

ASEAN Observer Team (Philippines-led)

Ceasefire monitoring mission

asean

The Philippines renews its impartiality pledge as head of the ASEAN Observer Team overseeing the Cambodia-Thailand ceasefire.

UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs

UN humanitarian coordination, Thailand-Cambodia border response

UN / Intl

The situation remains fragile, with ongoing humanitarian needs driven by displacement, disrupted services, and damage to homes, schools, health facilities and critical infrastructure.

Donald Trump

President of the United States

World Leader

I stopped a war just today.

Xi Jinping

President of China

World Leader

China stands ready to play a constructive role in resolving the border dispute, which is in both sides' long-term interests.

International Crisis Group

Conflict analysis, Thailand-Cambodia border

World Leader

The border dispute with Cambodia has sparked significant political disarray inside Thailand, well beyond the immediate military confrontation.

World Bank Cambodia Economic Update

Multilateral economic assessment

World Leader

Cambodia enters this period with relatively strong macroeconomic buffers, with international reserves remaining adequate at the equivalent of 7.5 months of imports, inflation contained at an average of 2.7 percent, and public debt around 26 percent of GDP.

Historical Timeline

1907 – Present

MilitaryDiplomaticHumanitarianEconomicActive

Roots of the Dispute (1907-2011)

1907

Franco-Siamese Boundary Treaty

Jun 15, 1962

ICJ Awards Preah Vihear Temple to Cambodia

Jul 2008

UNESCO Listing Triggers First Modern Clashes

2008-2011

2008-2011 Preah Vihear Border Clashes

May-Jun 2025: Flashpoint at Chong Bok

May 17, 2025

Cambodian Buildup Spotted at Hill 745

May 28, 2025

Chong Bok Clash Kills Cambodian Soldier

Jun 2, 2025

Cambodia Takes Border Dispute Back to the ICJ

Jun 15, 2025

Leaked Hun Sen Call Rocks Thai Government

Jun 2025

Bhumjaithai Quits Governing Coalition

Jul 1, 2025

Constitutional Court Suspends PM Paetongtarn

Jul 2025: The Five-Day Border War

Jul 16, 2025

First Landmine Blast Injures Thai Soldiers

Jul 23, 2025

Second Landmine Blast Near Chong An Ma

Jul 24, 2025

Fighting Erupts Along the Border, F-16s Deployed

Jul 26, 2025

Death Toll Hits 32 as Fighting Enters Third Day

Jul 27, 2025

UN Security Council Holds Closed-Door Session

Jul 28, 2025

Putrajaya Ceasefire Ends Five Days of Fighting

Jul 29, 2025

Hun Manet Hails Ceasefire, Thailand Alleges Breach

Jul 31, 2025

Trump Sets 19% Tariff After Ceasefire Holds

Aug-Nov 2025: Fragile Ceasefire

Aug 9, 2025

Thai Soldiers Hurt by Landmine Amid Truce

Aug 12, 2025

Thailand Again Accuses Cambodia of Laying Mines

Oct 26, 2025

Trump Co-Signs Expanded Ceasefire at ASEAN Summit

Nov 11, 2025

Landmine Blast Prompts Thailand to Declare Truce Void

Dec 2025: Collapse and Renewed Truce

Dec 7, 2025

Ceasefire Collapses, Fighting Resumes at Multiple Points

Dec 9, 2025

Death Toll Climbs as Hostilities Flare Anew

Dec 12, 2025

Thai PM Anutin Dissolves Parliament

Dec 14, 2025

Civilian Killed as Border Clashes Continue

Dec 17, 2025

Renewed Fighting Batters Trat Province Economy

Dec 19, 2025

China Offers to Help Resolve the Rift

Dec 23, 2025

Cambodian Civilian Death Toll Reaches 21 on Day 17

Dec 27, 2025

Second Ceasefire Signed at Chanthaburi Border Crossing

Dec 29, 2025

Thailand Reports Hundreds of Cambodian Drone Incursions

Dec 29, 2025

China, Cambodia, Thailand Hold Trilateral FM Meeting

Dec 31, 2025

Thailand Frees 18 Cambodian Soldiers

Jan-Feb 2026: Violations, Election, Occupation Claims

Jan 1, 2026

409,000 Remain Displaced Despite Ceasefire

Jan 3, 2026

Cambodia Demands Thai Troop Withdrawal

Jan 6, 2026

Thailand Says Disputed Border Strike Was Accidental

Jan 11, 2026

Hun Manet Announces Recovery Measures, Thanks China

Jan 22, 2026

Cambodia Alleges Ten Days of Ceasefire Violations

Feb 8, 2026

Bhumjaithai Wins Snap Election on Nationalist Wave

Feb 18, 2026

Hun Manet Says Thai Forces Occupy 'Deep' Territory

Feb 24, 2026

Thailand and Cambodia Exchange Fire in Sisaket

Mar-Aug 2026: Fences, MOU 44, and Great-Power Mediation

Mar 17, 2026

Thailand Announces Border Fence Construction Plan

Apr 2026

Pilot Fence Segment Rises in Chanthaburi

Apr 2026

Cambodia Demands JBC Approval for Fence Alignment

May 5, 2026

Thailand Formally Withdraws From MOU 44

May 18, 2026

Cambodia Brings ASEAN Observers to Disputed Frontier

Jul 19, 2026

Xi Jinping Offers to Facilitate Thailand-Cambodia Talks

Jul 22, 2026

Thailand Presses On With Fence Despite Cambodian Objections

Aug 18, 2026

Thailand Approves 433.5M Baht for Border Shelters

Source Tier Classification

Tier 1 — Primary/Official
CENTCOM, IDF, White House, IAEA, UN, IRNA, Xinhua official statements

Tier 2 — Major Outlet
Reuters, AP, CNN, BBC, Al Jazeera, Xinhua, CGTN, Bloomberg, WaPo, NYT

Tier 3 — Institutional
Oxford Economics, CSIS, HRW, HRANA, Hengaw, NetBlocks, ICG, Amnesty

Tier 4 — Unverified
Social media, unattributed military claims, unattributed video, diaspora accounts

Multi-Pole Sourcing

Events are sourced from four global media perspectives to surface contrasting narratives

Western
White House, CENTCOM, IDF, State Dept, Reuters, AP, BBC, CNN, NYT, WaPo

Middle Eastern
Al Jazeera, IRNA, Press TV, Tehran Times, Al Arabiya, Al Mayadeen, Fars News

Eastern
Xinhua, CGTN, Global Times, TASS, Kyodo News, Yonhap

International
UN, IAEA, ICRC, HRW, Amnesty, WHO, OPCW, CSIS, ICG